Trucks | FoT: ZeroAvia, Cybertruck, Monterra

FoT is the intelligence arm of Trucks Venture Capital 

Notable:

New IRA guidance limits battery components made in China (link). 'In a win for automakers, the U.S. Treasury will temporarily exempt some trace critical minerals from new strict rules barring materials from China and other countries deemed a Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC), or North Korea, China, Russia and Iran.'

Tesla's new EV pickup, the Cybertruck, officially launched last week with the first production units and pricing made available, starting around $60k up to around $100k (link). I found Jason Cammisa's review of the truck (link) to be the most useful as it (correctly) points out that while most people have already made up their mind about the truck, there are a number of innovations underneath worth greater inquiry. My friend Diego Rodriguez said that 'as a future technology expression and northern-most R&D outpost, the Cybertruck is Tesla’s Porsche 959 or Citroen’s DS.' After Cybertruck, I wonder if Tesla will make a 'market-normal' truck and SUV -- just imagine when Tesla finally makes a palatable 3-row SUV and pickup that looks like a Model 3. Of course, Tesla's underlying customer frameworks (no dealers, over-the-air updates, reliable chargers) are now so normal they are seen as an industry standard. When product planning catches up with that, it is possible Tesla will be a company on the scale of VW or Toyota.

US DoE report confirms California's Salton Sea as a large-scale lithium reserve (link). 'Conducted by DOE’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the analysis found that with expected technology advances, the Salton Sea region’s total resources could produce more than 3,400 kilotons of lithium, enough to support over 375 million batteries for EVs—more than the total number of vehicles currently on U.S. roads.'

A look at the diverging fortunes of auto retail companies Hertz and Carvana (link). 'If Hertz is in effect in the storage business of used cars, Carvana could be thought to be in the moving business. It buys cars from consumer and wholesale channels and tries to sell them as quickly as possible, capturing the pricing spread (Carvana attempts to sell vehicles within 70 days).'

VW head: we're no longer competitive (link). 'However, the bulk of the 10 billion euro savings goal would be achieved through measures other than personnel reduction, Kilian added, with the full details to be defined by the end of the year.'

A look at the development of standards for digital car keys (link).

Consumer Reports surveys show hybrids as the most reliable cars, while BEVs are less reliable than ICE and PHEVs are the least reliable overall (link). 'On average, new EVs had 79% more problems than gasoline-powered vehicles, Consumer Reports' 2023 Annual Auto Reliability survey showed. Hybrid vehicles had fewer issues than gasoline ones, while plug-in hybrids had 146% more problems.'

Cruise's budget in 2024 gets slashed by 'hundreds of millions' according to executive comments last week (link). Given the $2.5-$3B run rate that Cruise was on, perhaps this is only around a 10% cut? Until we know the real numbers this doesn't seem like a material cut to Cruise's 2024 plans. The biggest gap to understanding Cruise is the absence of a CEO and a future funding plan.

Could airports make hydrogen work as a fuel? (link).

Video: Chevrolet's 2023 holiday mini movie (link). Audio: Dr Phil Koopman on the Automotive News podcast re Cruise (link). Video: AVs can't interact (link). Video: Fun Haver El Bandito drifts in Vegas (link). Via Clay D. Video: unpublished Lamborghini Diablo documentary (link). Video: Vay's on-road teleoperations in Las Vegas (link).

M&A / Deals / Changes:

Hydrogen aviation startup ZeroAvia raises $116M (link). Led by UK Infrastructure Bank.

California EV charger planning startup Monterra raises $2.5M (link). Led by Base10 Partners.

Singapore logistics software startup Fr8Labs raises $1.5M (link). Led by East Ventures.

Hawaiian Airlines acquired by Alaska Airlines for $1.9B (link). I enjoyed reading Brian Sumers's perspective on the deal (link). Via Carlos T.

South African fleet management startup GoMetro raises $11.4M (link). Led by Zenobē Energy.

European car rental giant Sixt phases out Teslas from its fleet due to poor resale value (link).

New Stuff:

EV startup Callum reveals its SUV off-roader (link).

Thor Industries shows EV charging station concept for RVs (link).

Patents & Patent Applications:

Ford's patent for a sliding dashboard work desk (link).

Featured Jobs:

Senior Robotics Software Engineer at Faction in South San Francisco, CA USA (link).

Head of Sales at Zitara in San Francisco, CA USA (link).

Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) Reliability Technician at ChargerHelp in Washington, DC or remote (link).

MobilityJobs is the No.1 job board for auto & transportation companies (link). New: any startup can now post standard jobs for free. Just use the code 'Trucks' at checkout.

Statistics / Projections:

3-year-old EVs aren't holding their value as well as the average 3-year-old model (link). Via Automotive News / Black Book / Cox Automotive. 'Black Book predicts the average 3-year-old vehicle in October 2023 held 66% of its original value, down from 73% last year but up from 51% in October 2019. The company predicts this stat will decline to 56% by October 2026. The average 3-year-old EV, however, only held 49% of its original value in October 2023, down from 70% last year but up from 33% in October 2019. Black Book expected EVs of that age would keep 45% of value in October 2026.'

In 2022, repairing an EV after a crash cost an average $6,587 compared with $4,215 for all vehicles (link). Via WSJ / CCC Intelligent Solutions.

More than half of all drivers engage in risky behaviors while behind the wheel (link). Via AAA Foundation for Traffic Safety. 'Fewer drivers perceive speeding as dangerous, and speeding behaviors have the lowest perceived social disapproval of all the examined unsafe driving behaviors. It is worth noting, however, that a motorist’s need for speed consistently fails to deliver shorter travel times. It would take driving 100 miles at 80 mph instead of 75 mph to shave just 5 minutes off a trip.'

Lithium-ion battery pack prices hit record low of $139/kWh (link). Via BNEF.

Thank you:

Thank you to Marc Fonseca-Wollheim (link), Doron Levin (link) and Clément Nouvel (link) for offers of introductions to new founders, investors and friends over the last week.

Trucks portfolio companies mentioned in this issue:

ChargerHelp (link), Faction (link), Zitara (link). View the full portfolio of Trucks companies (link).

See you next week,

Reilly Brennan