Trucks | FoT: Tariffs, AAM, UVEye

FoT is the intelligence arm of Trucks Venture Capital 

Notable:

As new Canada and Mexico tariffs go into effect, the US auto industry braces for supply shocks and car prices estimated to increase by $3,000 (link). Flavio Volpe, president of Canada’s Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association: 'The auto sector is going to shut down within a week. At 25%, absolutely nobody in our business is profitable by a long shot.' Related: Economist: Tariffs will harm America, not induce a manufacturing rebirth (link). Via Diego.

Tesla says its robotaxi fleet will be live and unsupervised in Austin in 5 months, in a Tesla-owned fleet first (link). Via CJ. Related: Musk foreshadows that current FSD customers will need another hardware upgrade (link).

Nat Bullard's annual decarbonization charts presentation (link). Auto section starts at slide 115. Most striking auto charts: 123 (Japan vs China market share in APAC markets), 124 (identifying 'Peak Merica in China); 131 (Tesla taps out in Europe); 133 (on BYD's pace). Overall this is one of my favorite annual reads.

Sales of EV heavy-duty trucks are hitting a regulatory wall (link). 'Changes have left truck manufacturers and dealers in a limbo as they contend with a requirement to sell zero-emissions electric trucks to fleets that have little regulatory incentive to buy the new rigs.'

Vietnam's new traffic fines surge 10x; calmer patterns emerge (link). 'Under a new law, traffic fines have risen tenfold, with the biggest tickets exceeding $1,500. The average citation tops a month’s salary for many, and that’s more than enough to change behavior.'

EV batteries last longer than expected (link, link to report). Via David Z. 'EV batteries could last 38% longer than previous lab-based estimates. That means drivers could get as much as 314,000 kilometers (195,000 miles) more out of their EVs than academic researchers believed.'

Comparing the state of play between Uber and Waymo at the moment (link). Via Blair S. 'Uber won’t ever be able to match Waymo’s great product experience. But their weakness is also their strength, since the most important KPIs in the rideshare business are reliability and ETA. Waymo has a great product but if you can’t get one in less than 18 minutes, who cares?'

Video: the fastest charging EV in the world: Zeekr charges from 10% to 80% in under 10 minutes; 'this is embarassing for every other automaker' (link). Video: bricks that can absorb traffic noise; 'Helmholtz Resonator Absorber Bricks' (link). Via Weans. Video: Boom Supersonic XB-1 crosses supersonic barrier in test flight (link). Video: Waymo struggles with construction worker's hand signals (link). Video: laying the perfect gravel road (link).

The new era of women motorcycle taxi drivers in Africa (link). 'She's one of only about 1,000 women among the estimated 2.5 million motorcycle taxi drivers in the east African nation of Kenya.'

M&A / Deals / Changes:

American Axle acquires UK parts firm Dowlais in $1.2B cash and stock deal (link).

AI vehicle inspection startup UVEye raises $191M (link). Led by Woven Capital.

Brazilian mobility platform Kovi acquired by Moove (link).

Indian EV platform startup VoltUp raises $8M (link). Via Harsh. Led by EM Impact Capital.

Data and BI startup Athenic AI raises $4.3M (link). Led by BMW iVentures.

Israeli cybersecurity startup Guardknox shuts down (link).

Airbus pauses plans to bring EVTOL aircraft to market (link).

Board & Executive Changes:

Fortive: Alan Spoon to leave board; Sharmistha Dubey promoted to Chair (link).

CarMax: Ronald Blaylock to leave board (link).

CSX: Ann Begeman joins board (link).

Norfolk Southern: Lori J. Ryerkerk joins board (link).

Lucid: Taoufiq Boussaid named CFO (link).

Featured Jobs:

Aerodynamic Analysis Engineer at JetZero in Long Beach, CA, USA (link).

Senior Full Stack Developer at ChargerHelp, remote (link).

MobilityJobs is the No.1 job board for auto & transportation companies (link). If you are a startup you can use the job board for free standard listings — just enter 'Trucks' at checkout.

New Stuff:

Waymo is now testing on LA freeways (link).

NASCAR driver cam launches on Max for 2025 season, lets fans access any in-car camera feed on their own (link).

Plus expands from AV trucking to ADAS (link). Via Jennifer T.

Washington state lawmakers propose requiring speed-limiting devices in cars of drivers with speeding history (link).

New US transportation secretary orders review of fuel economy rules (link).

Honda to manufacture electric motorcycles in India by 2028 (link).

Patents & Patent Applications:

GM's patent application shows identification of people outside of heads up display windshield (link).

Statistics / Projections:

Given new US executive orders, estimates on EV adoption fall to 23% from 30% by 2030 (link). Via Wood MacKenzie.

In California a total of 4.5M autonomous vehicle test miles were logged in 2024, down 50% YoY, with driverless testing falling 83% YoY to just 552,895 miles (link). Via Techcrunch / CA DMV. This figure should drop more as vehicles like Waymo continue to move from testing to deployment (fully deployed AVs aren’t counted in testing mile number).

A look at the secondary micromobility market data from 2024 (link).

Toyota remained the top-selling automaker globally in 2024, despite selling fewer cars (link). Via WSJ. 'Its group worldwide sales dropped 3.7% to 10.8 million vehicles in 2024.'

Thank you:

Thank you to Ken Carlson (link), Rodolfo Elias Dieck (link), Jamie Gull (link), Michael Kerbis (link), Vanessa Kruze (link), Eric London (link), Kelly Arnow Moulton (link), Lee Rawlings (link), Adam Rodnitzky (link) and Andrew Savage (link) for offers of introductions to new founders, investors and friends over the last week.

Trucks portfolio companies mentioned in this issue:

ChargerHelp (link), JetZero (link). View the full portfolio of Trucks companies (link).

The only way to experience an experience is to experience it (Moggridge),

Reilly Brennan