Trucks | FoT: Estes, FAA Mosaic, Nevoya

Trucks | Future of Transportation for 2025.07.28
FoT is the intelligence arm of Trucks Venture Capital 

Notable:

US and EU avert trade war with 15% tariff deal (much lower than 50% threat in May, which became 30% planned in June), in deal that mirrors Japan's (link).

FAA's new 'MOSAIC' ruling is a big leap for use of digital controls in small aircraft (link). 'MOSAIC allows fixed-wing and rotary-wing aircraft to be certificated as light sport aircraft, and specifically outlines how airplanes, helicopters and future vertical lift aircraft equipped with simplified vehicle operations (SVO) like Skyryse SkyOS may only require 20 hours of pilot training. By decreasing the traditional training requirements by 50% when SVO is in use, the ruling acknowledges the impact simplified controls have in reducing the complexity and increasing the safety of piloting.'

On Uber's remarkable turnaround: a $12 billion swing in free cash flow over the past 5 years (link). 'The most significant driver is Uber’s shrewd decision to launch 'upfront pricing' — the largest scale implementation of algorithmic price discrimination on both sides of its marketplace...largely decoupled price and pay from trip time and distance, enabling Uber to selectively raise prices closer to an algorithmically-determined maximum each consumer might be willing to pay for a given trip.'

The 'Shenzen of Drones' is the Eastern Bloc (link). 'From Ukraine’s TAF Drones ($180M revenue) and Poland’s WB Group ($400M) to upstarts like Estonia’s Threod Systems ($44M, up 87% YoY), these ex-Soviet economies are turning into the drone arsenal for all of NATO.'

This was supposed to be the year that China caught up with SpaceX (link). China's Starlink competitors have only 120 satellites in orbit, compared to over 8000 for SpaceX.

Tesla expands its Robotaxi fleet to the Bay Area, but with safety drivers at the wheel and no permits yet submitted (link). A view toward nationwide rollout by end of this year, although in what form is the question (link). A compedium of Elon Musk's AV predictions (link).

Chinese AV firm Pony AI wins permit to provide fully driverless robotaxi services in Shanghai --the only company with permits in all four of China's biggest cities (link). From an FoT reader who covers China: 'you don't need to be the best in order to have the best BD.'

Video: A look at the final construction on new US/Canada Gordie Howe bridge (link). Video: in 1985, Neil Bonnett's NASCAR race car had Budweiser-livery gas cans (link). Video: raceday at LEGOna Seca (link). Via Paul P. Video: you are the LAX airport road designer (link).

M&A / Deals / Changes:

Modular battery startup Estes Energy raises $11M (link). Led by BMW iVentures and Fortescu.

Lyft details plans for AV shuttles with Benteler Mobility in 2026 (link).

AV sensor startup Lumotive raises $59M (link). With additional new funding from Amazon.

AV trucking startup Bot Auto partners with JB Hunt and Steves & Sons for Texas routes (link).

AI trucking TMS startup Nevoya raises $9.3M (link). Led by Lowercarbon Capital.

Positioning startup Swift Navigation raises $50M (link). Led by Crosslink Capital.

Board & Executive Changes:

Urgently: Ben Volkow to depart board (link).

Eaton: Gerald Johnson joins board (link).

Curated Jobs:

Software Engineer at Denim in New York, or remote (link).

EVSE Reliability Electrician at ChargerHelp in Baltimore, Maryland, USA (link).

Hiring? Post a job (link). If you're a startup, use code 'Trucks' for free standard listings.

Hunting? View all 421 postings on the MobilityJobs job board (link).

New Stuff:

A new Corvette concept, called the Calfornia, hints at future designs (link). 'The design team told us they took to calling the concept "C10" internally, since their design essentially looks two generations into the future.'

A new search engine allows you look for any text on any NYC street (link). Example: truck (link), donut (link), parking (link).

Airstream's new Frank Lloyd Wright-inspired trailer (link).

GPS Jam shows a map of GPS interferance around the world (link).

In the US, now you can get your motorcycle license on an electric (link).

The latest jaw-dropping BYD specs: 375-mi range, $20k price (link).

Patents & Patent Applications:

BMW's patent application for fragrancing the interior of a vehicle (link). Their words not mine.

Statistics / Projections:

Canadians want Chinese cars: 4 out of 5 believe Chinese cars should have a lower or no tariff to enter their market (link). Via Clean Energy Canada / Abacus Data.

Around 90% of renewables cheaper than fossil fuels worldwide (link, link to report). Via Reuters / IRENA. 'The IRENA report found that approximately 91% of newly commissioned renewable energy projects are more cost-effective than fossil fuel alternatives. Solar PV is 41% cheaper, and onshore wind is 53% cheaper than the lowest-cost fossil fuels.'

Tesla's plan for building 5000 humanoid robots in 2025 appears to be behind schedule (link).

In new vehicle ownership study, all vehicle areas improve for first time in nearly a decade (link). Via JD Power. 'Scores in all 10 categories in the study improve compared with last year—an achievement for the industry that has not occurred in almost a decade. The gains are led by a 13-point improvement in satisfaction with fuel economy, followed by infotainment and interior, which each increase by 6 points.'

After $7.5B US infrastructure bill, less than 400 EV chargers have been built through April of this year (link). Via Reuters / US Government Accountability Office.

EV owners report that their cars are cheaper to maintain than ICE, but wait times for parts is increasing (link). Via Automotive News / CDK. 'The CDK study found the time it took to have an EV serviced increased in 2024 compared with 2023. Only 28% of EV owners were able to get their car or truck fixed the same day in 2024 — down from 40% the previous year.'

Thank you:

Thank you to Henryk Dabrowski (link) and Jay Warida (link) for offers of introductions to new founders, investors and friends over the last week.

Trucks portfolio companies mentioned in this issue:

ChargerHelp (link), Denim (link), Estes Energy (link), Skyryse (link). View the full portfolio of Trucks companies (link).

The unfed mind devours itself (Gore Vidal),

Reilly Brennan